Key takeaways:
Ether gained 75% versus Bitcoin in Q3, but has underperformed slightly in September.
Retail investor participation remained weak, creating a divergence with institutional flows.
Ether (ETH) rallied 75% relative to Bitcoin in Q3, and despite the recent slowdown in price action, traders still believe the altcoin can hit $5,000 in 2025.
Glassnode data indicated that futures traders’ interest has remained focused on Ether. Its open interest dominance currently stands at 43.3%, the fourth-highest on record, while Bitcoin holds 56.7%. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s perpetual futures volume dominance hit a new all-time high of 67%, highlighting the largest rotation of trading activity toward Ether in history.
Likewise, CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk highlighted the “key condition” for a potential Ether breakout. According to the analyst, reclaiming the $4,580 level, tied to accumulation and exchange outflow cost bases, remained pivotal.
With over 1.28 million ETH, worth more than $5.3 billion, moved into long-term accumulation addresses on Thursday, a successful reclaim could flip market sentiment and pave the way toward a $5,000 breakout.
ETH has found support around $4,100, corresponding to the average cost basis of highly active addresses.
Related: Last chance for Ethereum? ETH price pattern breaks down as $4K must hold
Institutional demand decreases Ether supply, but is retail fading the move?
Recent demand for Ether has largely been driven by institutions, reducing circulating supply. US spot ETH ETFs have seen total net assets jump to $27.48 billion in September from $10.32 billion in June, adding over $17 billion across July and August.
Additional institutional demand came from Strategic Ethereum Reserves, led by Bitmine and SharpLink, with allocations rising to 12,029,054 ETH by Sept. 23 from 5,445,458 ETH on July 1, a 121% increase, currently valued at around $46 billion.
Despite this surge in institutional accumulation, retail participation appears to be waning. Net taker volume on Binance has remained negative over the past month, and the trend peaked in late September, signaling persistent sell-side pressure even amid broader altcoin enthusiasm.
The spot taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator, which tracks the cumulative difference between market buys and sells over 90 days, has remained taker sell dominant since the end of July. This means retail traders have been consistently selling ETH more than buying, reinforcing the divergence between institutional accumulation and retail behavior.
If retail flows turn positive and the spot taker CVD shifts to a buy-dominant phase, ETH could see a retail-driven rally, complementing ongoing institutional accumulation and potentially accelerating broader market momentum.
Related: Ethereum bulls tout supercycle, but Wall Street is skeptical
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
