Government Bitcoin adoption is about to tip, according to JAN3 founder Samson Mow. After years of slow and cautious steps, Mow thinks nation-states are about to go from gradual to suddenly buying bitcoin.
“I think we’re on the tail end of gradually, and we’re at the beginning phases of suddenly,” Mow said on the What Bitcoin Did podcast with Danny Knowles. “These things happen very quickly… literally gradually then suddenly.”
For most of the last decade, governments have kept bitcoin at arm’s length. Some dismissed it as a speculative bubble, others focused on regulation rather than adoption. But Mow says that era is coming to an end soon.
Countries are now openly talking about strategic bitcoin reserves—government-held bitcoin that will be part of national treasuries or sovereign wealth funds. Once one country makes a big public move, he says, others will follow.
One of the most watched is the United States. President Trump has signed an executive order to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, but the government has not yet started buying bitcoin in the open market.
Samson Mow pointed out that the U.S. is “pushing forward” with budget-neutral acquisition strategies and legislation like the Bitcoin Act, but the delay in actual purchases leaves the door open for others to act first. “The risk is that the U.S. is front-run by Pakistan,” he warned.
As of now, the U.S. government already holds 198,012 bitcoin according to on-chain data. These coins are mostly from law enforcement seizures, not deliberate accumulation.
Reports say the government officially holds about 29,000 BTC, while the rest is still tied up in court, waiting to be either returned to hack and scam victims, or handed over to the government.
Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, recently said he thinks the U.S. will formalize its bitcoin reserve by the end of this year.
While the U.S. debates, others may be moving faster. Mow is most bullish on Latin America. Several countries in the region are exploring using Bitcoin to stabilize their economies or increase financial independence.
If one or more governments start building reserves, it could be the trigger for broader adoption. Fidelity Digital Assets said earlier this year that central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and treasuries are looking into Bitcoin.
Despite nation-state adoption expectations, bitcoin’s price hasn’t followed the script for 2025.
“We should have had a bull run already,” Mow said. “Like a massive run up.” Instead, bitcoin seems to be stuck between $110,000 and $120,000, down 2% over the past month.
Mow and others now think the current cycle is delayed. Some think 2026 will be the next big up year. “I bet 2026 is an up year,” said Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise.
This has sparked debate about whether the traditional 4-year cycle—tied to the halvings—still applies in the era of ETFs and institutional and nation-states’ adoptions.
