Cramer on guidance cut and stock

PepsiCo slashed its earnings outlook Thursday, but CNBC’s Jim Cramer sees reasons to be more optimistic about the struggling beverage and snack giant.

The company reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue, but cut its full-year profit forecast as higher costs and investments to revive demand weighed on margins. Shares rallied 3% following the report, as investors focused on improving sales trends and a guidance cut that had been widely anticipated.

“It’s far too big of a leap to say that PepsiCo is fully out of the woods here, not when there are so many secular challenges that they’re facing,” the “Mad Money” host said. However, given the reason for the forecast cut and the stock’s relatively low valuation, “I’m feeling a lot better about this story. You could do a lot worse than buying some PepsiCo down here.”

PepsiCo shares have struggled since hitting an all-time high in May 2023, before concerns about the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs would have on snack consumption began to ripple across Wall Street. More recently, rising inflation, oil prices and interest rates added to the pressure, sending PepsiCo shares down nearly 10% in September alone. The stock closed Wednesday at its lowest level since April 2020.

Cramer said the positive stock reaction came down to two factors: improving sales momentum and an earnings-guidance cut that was already largely priced into the stock.

“Wall Street didn’t care about the lowered earnings forecast because everyone knew this was inevitable,” he said.

PepsiCo’s new earnings forecast is for growth in the range of 2.5% to 3.5%, down from 5% to 7%.

“Look, the new guidance could’ve been a lot worse,” Cramer said. “A lot of people thought they’d hear the company was being eaten alive by higher costs. Instead, we got a nice story about how PEP’s investing to maintain its revenue growth.”

For Cramer, that distinction matters. PepsiCo is investing more in advertising, product innovation and lower prices to attract consumers. Those efforts are pressuring margins, alongside higher fuel and packaging costs, but appear to be helping revive sales.

Organic revenue grew 3.1%, ahead of the FactSet consensus of 2.75%. It also represented the company’s strongest performance since the fourth quarter of 2023. Importantly, it maintained its organic revenue growth outlook at 3% and raised its reported revenue growth forecast to 6%, versus its prior guidance of 4% to 6%.

CEO Ramon Laguarta said the company is “acting with urgency to sustainably improve our performance in North America,” while identifying additional cost reductions to fund growth initiatives.

Cramer cautioned that PepsiCo still faces challenges from changing consumer habits, including the impact of weight-loss drugs. But with the stock trading at roughly 15 times the midpoint of its reduced earnings forecast and supporting a dividend yield of about 4.61%, he said that’s not nothing.