Elon Musk’s social media company X has formalized a partnership with Polymarket, designating the blockchain-based platform as its official prediction market partner. The collaboration comes just weeks after a previously announced partnership between Musk’s AI company xAI and prediction market Kalshi was abruptly withdrawn.
X CEO Linda Yaccarino confirmed the collaboration, stating, “We are pleased to partner with Polymarket and look forward to bringing our data and technology to Polymarket users through a range of creative product integrations.”
Through this agreement, Polymarket will gain access to X’s data streams, including those from its AI subsidiary, with the aim of developing integrated tools that enhance forecasting and market insight. The two companies plan to deliver real-time annotations and predictive analytics for a wide range of market questions, incorporating contributions from Grok, X’s AI system.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan described the partnership as a major step toward redefining the news experience. “Combining Polymarket’s accurate, unbiased and real-time prediction market probabilities with Grok’s analysis and X’s real-time insights will enable us to provide contextualised, data-driven insights to millions of Polymarket users around the world instantaneously,” Coplan said. In a separate statement, he called it a union between “the two top truth seeking apps on the internet,” coining the phrase “News 2.0.”
Prediction Markets and Regulatory Gray Zones
Polymarket, while increasingly popular for its real-time betting on global topics, remains unlicensed in the United States. The New York-based company settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022 and was ordered to block U.S. users from accessing its platform. Since then, it has redirected its focus toward international users and grown rapidly.
During the 2024 U.S. elections, Polymarket reportedly handled billions in trading volume. Among its most talked-about outcomes was an $85 million win by an unidentified French bettor who successfully predicted Donald Trump’s victory. In recent months, Polymarket has also added sports-based contracts to its portfolio.
Despite its successes, the platform has faced criticism for its lack of regulatory compliance and controversial betting topics. Critics have pointed to certain contracts, such as wagers on elements of the California wildfires and speculative bets on the death of Pope Francis, as deeply troubling. Concerns have also been raised regarding the platform’s use of cryptocurrency for trades, which some say undermines transparency and raises AML and KYC issues.
Trump–Musk Tensions and Kalshi’s Quiet Exit
The timing of X’s deal with Polymarket is notable given the recent tensions between Elon Musk and former U.S. President Donald Trump. Their public feud intensified in early June after Trump accused Musk of benefiting from government subsidies, while Musk responded with allegations about Trump’s association with Jeffrey Epstein. The exchange unfolded across their respective platforms—Truth Social and X.
The strained relationship coincides with the collapse of an earlier prediction market partnership. On May 20, Kalshi had announced a collaboration with Musk’s xAI, only for that announcement to be quietly retracted the same day. No official explanation has been provided for the reversal.
Trump’s family has close ties to Kalshi, with Donald Trump Jr. joining as a strategic advisor in January 2025. He previously promoted the platform on social media, citing its accuracy during election night.
Meanwhile, X is doubling down on Polymarket’s appeal as a forecasting tool. The platform has gained traction among X’s user base, with its markets offering odds on geopolitical events and celebrity disputes alike. For example, users can bet on the odds of a ceasefire in Ukraine or whether Musk and Trump will reconcile by the following week.
“Polymarket ensures transparency through its prediction markets, and has grown into a staple source of real-time information for many X users,” said Yaccarino in a statement shared with Bloomberg. X’s business account also praised Polymarket’s accuracy, calling it “the leading authority in forecasting elections, global events, and cultural trends.”
Source:
Musk’s X partners with online betting market that predicted Trump’s 2024 victory, washingtonexaminer.com, June, 2025.
