Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a record low versus gold (XAU) in January, making it a better buying opportunity than what preceded the 2015–2017 bull market, analysts say.
Key takeaways:
BTC vs gold hit a record low, a level that has lined up with past major bottoms.
Some analysts warn that a rotation to BTC from gold is not guaranteed.
Gold-to-Bitcoin rotation could start in February
On Saturday, Bitcoin’s value compared to gold fell to its lowest level ever after adjusting for the global money supply, data from Bitwise Europe showed.
The indicator shows when Bitcoin is unusually strong or weak versus gold. It has now moved near an extreme zone (the -2 level in the chart below) that in the past appeared around BTC market bottoms.
The last time this band fell to similar levels was in 2015, indicating extreme BTC undervaluation to gold. That preceded 11,800% BTC price gains to $20,000 from around $165 within just two years. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said in a Saturday X post:
“Today represents a better opportunity to be buying Bitcoin than 2017.”
His comment echoed analysts who expect some capital to rotate from gold into Bitcoin this year.
That includes Bitwise European head of research, André Dragosch, and Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal. The latter said such rotations could start occurring in February or March.
Capital rotation “might not happen quickly”
The bullish views emerged as gold prices have surged over the past year, while Bitcoin has fallen by 18% over the same period.
But not everyone agreed that a rotation from precious metals to Bitcoin is imminent, including analyst Benjamin Cowen.
He said Bitcoin’s downtrend may last longer than many holders expect, arguing BTC is “likely going to keep bleeding against the stock market” and that hopes for a “massive rotation” out of gold and silver could be misplaced in the short term.
Related: Gold is acting like the hedge Bitcoin promised to be
Citi said that silver could extend its gains in the next few months due to demand from China and a weaker US dollar. Likewise, RBC Capital Markets predicted gold’s price to reach $7,000 by 2026’s end.
Cowen said that even if precious metals stay strong, the move into Bitcoin is “probably not going to happen” quickly.
Bitcoin long-term holders absorb January sell-off
Despite Bitcoin’s sharp pullback in January, on-chain data shows long-term holders are quietly rebuilding positions.
The supply held by Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders (LTH), entities that hold BTC for over 155 days, began recovering during the January selloff.
Also, the LTH Spent Binary, a metric that shows whether long-term Bitcoin holders are selling or staying put, continued to decline during this period.
In past cycles, recovering LTH supply and declining LTH Spent Binary preceded the formation of durable BTC bottoms, according to analyst Anil.
A recent example came after the April 2025 lows: long-term holder supply began to recover first, and BTC followed with a sharp rebound about a month later, rallying roughly 60% from the lows.
These trends suggest that the more patient holders are taking advantage of BTC’s price drop in January, often the kind of reset that helps Bitcoin build a stronger base for gains in the future.
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