Key points:
Markets increasingly see fewer Fed rate cuts this year, with the first only coming in September.
Despite potential labor market weakness to come, crypto and risk assets lack an overall bullish catalyst, analysis says.
BTC/USD continues to drop toward new multiday lows.
Bitcoin (BTC) sold off at the May 28 Wall Street open as markets continued to price out US interest rate cuts.
BTC price retreats with Fed rate cut bets
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping below $108,000 to challenge multiday lows.
Ahead of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s May meeting, the mood among risk assets was cautious.
CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed decreasing odds of a rate cut — a key tailwind for crypto, stocks and more — before September.
Informal sentiment likewise continued to deteriorate on the day, with prediction service Kalshi seeing just two cuts in 2025, down from four in early April.
📊 UPDATE: Markets now pricing in just 2 Fed rate cuts in 2025, down from 4 earlier this year, as uncertainty builds ahead of today’s Fed minutes. pic.twitter.com/vAYLJGJjwF
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) May 28, 2025
In its latest analysis, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter nonetheless revealed a potential silver lining.
Consumer sentiment over the labor market, it reported, was flashing classic signs of a forthcoming unemployment spike — something which could force the Fed to bring rate cuts forward.
“The assessment of current job availability has also decreased over the last 3 years. In previous economic cycles, this metric has been a leading indicator for unemployment,” it told X followers.
“This indicator clearly suggests a further increase in the unemployment rate in the coming months. The labor market continues to show signs of weakness.”
Risk assets lack volatility trigger
BTC price action meanwhile cut through bid liquidity on its way down, something which popular trader TheKingfisher previously warned could form a “trigger” for further losses if broken.
Related: Bitcoin whales keep buying as BTC price dip targets include $94K
“However, the more striking feature is the massive wall of short liquidations immediately above, starting from $108900 and extending significantly upwards, particularly around $109000-$109200+,” he acknowledged.
“This creates a substantial imbalance biased towards short liquidations.”
With BTC/USD rangebound since its $112,000 all-time highs, macro analysis from trading firm QCP Capital ultimately suggested little chance of a price breakout without a suitable catalyst.
“Volatility across most asset classes continues to drift lower, as markets enter a lull amid a dearth of meaningful news flow and macroeconomic data,” it wrote in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers on the day.
“The news cycle remains relentless, yet markets appear increasingly inured to negative developments, brushing off headlines that might once have sparked more significant reactions.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
