Bitcoin’s price may stay flat in the first quarter of 2026, even though historical trends suggest otherwise, says CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
“Capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up,” Ju said on Wednesday, adding that investor interest has returned to “stocks and shiny rocks” as the price of gold and silver have skyrocketed.
Ju added that Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to crash from its peak as it has done in the past, and expected “just boring sideways for the next few months.”
Bitcoin is trading at around $90,890 at the time of publication, down over 2% in the past day and has fallen from a high this week of $94,400, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin trading sideways would go against trends
The lack of any real price movement in the first quarter of 2026 would counter how Bitcoin has historically performed.
The month of January has historically been a more modest month for Bitcoin, averaging a 3.81% return since 2013. February and March have delivered far stronger historic gains of 13.12% and 12.21% respectively, according to CoinGlass.
Ju’s comments come after veteran trader Peter Brandt and Fidelity’s director of macroeconomic research, Jurrien Timmer, floated the possibility of Bitcoin this year falling as low as $65,000, or even $60,000.
Sentiment in the market has been recently subdued, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, floating between “fear” and “extreme fear” since early November. On Thursday, the index posted a “fear” score of 28.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs show signs of life
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund performance over the first three trading days of 2026 are showing signs of momentum, with $925.3 million in net inflows, according to Farside Investors data.
Related: Bitcoin averages 100% return after down years: Will the pattern repeat in 2026?
While Ju has started 2026 with a conservative forecast, other industry participants are showing much more confidence in Bitcoin’s price this year.
Venture capitalist Tim Draper said on Wednesday that “2026 will be big”.
“Bitcoin goes mainstream. My $250k prediction finally reached,” he said, referring to the call he first made in 2018, when he said Bitcoin would hit that level by the end of 2022.
Meanwhile, Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen said on Dec. 17 that Bitcoin will break the traditional four-year cycle in 2026 and reach new all-time highs.
He said that while the four-year cycle typically delivers three up years followed by a down year, which would point to 2026, he doesn’t see it playing out that way this time.
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