Key takeaways:
Historical data shows Bitcoin often outperforms during trade wars and liquidity injections despite initial macro fear.
Resilient mining activity and a shift to net long positions on CME futures suggest professional traders are buying the dip.
Bitcoin (BTC) traders are becoming increasingly anxious after 18 days of trading below the $75,000 level. Concerns intensified following a retest of $64,200 on Monday, triggered by a retreat in global stock markets. US President Donald Trump’s decision to increase baseline import tariffs to 15% has heightened uncertainty, leading investors to adopt a more risk-averse stance.
While these events appear negative at first glance, Bitcoin has a history of outperforming during bearish macroeconomic shifts. More importantly, risk perception is gradually improving; Bitcoin miners have shown resilience, and professional traders used the recent dip to add exposure.
On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration signed an executive order imposing sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” on nearly every trading partner. The situation escalated on April 9, 2025, as additional tariffs were applied to 75 countries, including a 34% rate for China. This move coincided with Bitcoin hitting a five-month low at $74,600, which was followed by a 38% rally over the next month.
Traders choose cash over Bitcoin during periods of uncertainty
The natural instinct for traders during periods of uncertainty is to seek shelter in cash and government bonds. Despite its unique benefits, Bitcoin is not yet considered a safe haven by most investors. However, once the market realizes that governments may be forced to inject liquidity to stimulate the economy, Bitcoin tends to outperform.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) lends cash against Treasury collateral to maintain smooth funding markets and settlements. This measure should not be viewed as a direct liquidity injection, as it reflects temporary balance sheet conditions. Nevertheless, peak levels in this indicator—such as the $100 billion seen on March 16, 2020—have historically marked reversals in Bitcoin’s price trend.
In fact, the COVID-19 crash of 2020 marked the beginning of a multi-month rally, taking Bitcoin to $42,000 from $4,400. Consequently, those who claimed the cryptocurrency failed as a long-term investment while it traded 55% below its prior $19,900 all-time high between May and July 2020 were proven wrong. A similar pattern could unfold in 2026 if liquidity conditions deteriorate further.
Nvidia (NVDA US) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the US stock market closes on Wednesday. Results from the chipmaker will likely set the investor mood, particularly as concerns regarding rising tech sector debt mount. Notably, shares of Coreweave (CRWV US) and Oracle (ORCL US) have already plunged over 50% from their previous all-time highs.
While conditions for companies supporting the artificial intelligence sector weaken, the exodus of investment from Bitcoin miners represents less of a risk now that the network hashrate has fully recovered from a 25% dip in January. More importantly, ASIC miners released in 2024 and early 2025 remain profitable even at an electricity cost of $0.07 per kilowatt-hour.
Related: Bitcoin miner MARA buys majority stake in AI data center firm Exaion
The de-escalation of “miner death spiral” fears may have helped instill bullishness among professional fund managers. Large speculators, including hedge funds, have shifted from a net short to a net long position on CME Bitcoin futures, according to a CFTC report published last week. Analyst Tom McClellan noted that two similar historical shifts preceded significant Bitcoin price bottoms.
While no single reversal indicator can confirm if the $60,200 level on Feb. 6 marked the cycle low, the combination of liquidity concerns, fears of excessive AI sector valuations, and resilience in the mining sector could push Bitcoin’s price back toward $75,000 in the near term.
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