Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) went through one of the most aggressive distribution phases on record in 2025. While the scale of selling rattled the market, onchain data analysis suggests that this pressure may be fading, possibly outlining the next bullish period for BTC price.
Key takeaways:
Long-term holders distributed about $300 billion in BTC in 2025, marking a historic supply reset.
Heavy LTH selling has occurred near cycle peaks or during structural transitions, not at the start of new downtrends.
With selling pressure stalling, the next phase may hinge on how early the long-term holder supply stabilizes.
A historic unwind backed Bitcoin’s 2025 volatility
The amount of Bitcoin (BTC) that had remained unmoved for at least two years moved onchain sharply in 2025. Nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin that had been dormant for over a year re-entered circulation. The 30 days from Nov. 15 to Dec. 14, 2025, marked one of the heaviest long-term holder (LTH) distribution periods in more than five years.
Since 2019, sharp declines in long-term holder (LTH) supply have rarely appeared in isolation. They have surfaced during phases when Bitcoin’s trend was already under strain, either approaching exhaustion or undergoing a structural shift.
In 2018, the LTH supply fell to 12 million BTC from 13 million, with selling intensity peaking when the 30-day distribution reached 1.08 million BTC in December. At that point, Bitcoin had already spent months declining. Price bottomed near $3,500 in February 2019, before stabilizing and rallying to $11,000 by mid-year, illustrating how heavy LTH selling could precede recovery rather than mark its end.
The 2020–2021 cycle unfolded differently. LTH supply dropped to 11.65 million BTC from 13.7 million BTC, while Bitcoin price rose to $61,000 from $14,000. The 30-day distribution peak of 891,000 BTC did not immediately halt the rally.
Instead, selling persisted as prices rose, gradually eroding upside momentum before the cycle ultimately rolled over, a reminder that LTH distribution can accompany expansion before defining its limits.
During the 2024–2025 bull run, supply declined to 14.5 million BTC from 15.8 million BTC, with the 30-day distribution peaking at 758,000 BTC. Price topped slightly earlier in March, and both metrics then moved sideways through Q2–Q3, reinforcing a familiar pattern: Price strength tends to fade as long-term holders step up distribution.
The final phase in mid-to-late 2025 proved more abrupt. LTH supply briefly recovered to 15.4 million BTC in June, before collapsing to 13.5 million BTC by December, the sharpest decline on record.
Price weakness appeared in October, but the most selling followed later, with the largest-ever 30-day distribution peak of 1.14 million BTC in November. That sequence suggests capitulation rather than orderly profit-taking, marking a reset rather than a continuation of the prior trend.
Related: Bitcoin RSI hints at $105K BTC price rebound as bull signals multiply
What the pause in selling may be signaling
Since December, the LTH supply has stopped falling, currently around $13.6 million, while Bitcoin has entered a sideways range. Additional confirmation comes from the long-term/short-term holder supply ratio.
Every time this ratio has fallen to –0.5 or below, Bitcoin has either entered a base-building phase or rallied to new highs within weeks. In December, the ratio dropped to about -0.53, after which price volatility compressed and momentum stalled, consistent with a reset rather than trend continuation.
Thus this combination, aggressive distribution followed by supply stabilization, has historically marked transition phases rather than trend continuation. If the trend repeats, the consolidation through Q1to Q2 could act as a base-building period, with any sustained rally more likely to emerge later, potentially into Q3.
Related: BlackRock adds $900M BTC as Bitcoin long-term selling falls to 2017 lows
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