Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to close above a key resistance zone last week after briefly spiking to roughly $93,300. However, BTC failed to stop a mean-reversion trend, with the price dropping below $85,000 on Monday.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s inability to close above $93,000 invalidated the confirmation of a bullish trend reversal.
Without fresh spot demand, Bitcoin could range between $80,600 and $96,000 until one of those levels is retested.
Lack of spot buyers flattens bullish sentiment
Thin spot liquidity and weak order-book depth are the major culprits in the current difficulty BTC encounters when attempting to move above $93,000. Although a dense cost-basis cluster sits around $84,000, more than 400,000 BTC acquired in this range have effectively formed an onchain floor.
Despite strong historical accumulation, active buying pressure between $84,000 and $90,000 has been absent. Meanwhile, many short-term holders remain underwater relative to their average entry of $104,600, putting the market in a low-liquidity zone.
Data from CryptoQuant showed that the Binance “Bitcoin to Stablecoin Reserve Ratio” has dropped to its lowest level since 2018. This implied an unprecedented build-up of stablecoins ready to buy BTC. Historically, such extreme stablecoin-to-BTC ratios on exchanges have preceded major rallies.
While spot demand remains weak, the stablecoin overhang suggests the buying power to fuel a surge is on hand, but currently sitting idle.
Related: BTC price analysis: Bitcoin could crash another 50%
Bitcoin may remain sideways ahead of the next FOMC
Bitcoin is now trapped between $96,000 (the top of the recent range) and $80,600–$84,000 (onchain cost-basis floor). Liquidity clusters remained on either side, which means a breakout in either direction could trigger sharp moves.
From a bullish standpoint, a re-test of the lower band near $80,600–$84,000 might be constructive. That would allow BTC to soak up liquidity on the downside, rebuilding a base before a rebound.
Conversely, an immediate retest of $93,000–$96,000 without first gathering liquidity below could backfire as sellers may re-enter, risking further correction in line with the broader downtrend.
Given the current backdrop, a period of sideways consolidation is increasingly likely ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 9–10. With markets watching for signals on US interest-rate policy, traders could remain sidelined rather than chase volatile moves.
Related: BTC price dips under $84K as Bitcoin faces ‘pivotal’ week for 2025 candle
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
