Crypto could see an “unexpected November rally” with the latest indicators showing traders are getting increasingly fearful, which usually results in a shift of money from weaker hands to long-term accumulators.
Social media comments about Bitcoin (BTC) are evenly split between bullish and bearish, while Ether (ETH) has just over 50% more bullish vs bearish comments. Both are less than usual, Santiment said in an X post on Wednesday.
At the same time, less than half the comments on social media about XRP (XRP) are bullish, making it one of the most “fearful moments of 2025” for the token.
A sell-off could be a plus for the market
Crypto market sentiment remains fearful as the broader market continues to slump. Analysts have attributed it to a range of macroeconomic factors, like traders shifting to assets with clearer exposure to economic policies and credit flows, as the end of the US Government shutdown looms.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which tracks overall market sentiment, returned a score of 15 out of 100 on Thursday, marking “extreme fear,” the lowest rating since March.
Joe Consorti, head of Bitcoin growth at trading and liquidity protocol Horizon, said the overall sentiment among traders is at the same level it was in 2022, when Bitcoin was around $18,000, citing data from Glassnode.
However, Santiment said traders’ souring moods could be “welcomed news for the patient,” and fuel an “unexpected November rally,” because there are more diamond-handed holders waiting to snap up what weaker hands sell.
“When the crowd turns negative on assets, especially the top market caps in crypto, it is a signal that we are reaching the point of capitulation,” Santiment said.
“Once retail sells off, key stakeholders scoop up the dropped coins and pump prices. It’s not a matter of if, but when this will next happen.”
Samson Mow, the founder of Bitcoin technology infrastructure company Jan3, who argued the Bitcoin bull run is yet to begin last week, shared a similar opinion on Tuesday, claiming that “newish buyers” are the only ones selling and traders with long-term holding plans are using it as a chance to stack more crypto into their wallets.
Related: Bitcoin whale and retail major ‘divergence’ is a warning sign: Santiment
Holders with conviction snapping up coins
Mow argues that selling pressure is coming from people who bought Bitcoin in the last 12 to 18 months and are taking profits due to fears that the cycle has peaked.
“These are not Bitcoin buyers from first principles, but rather speculators that follow the news,” he said.
“This cohort of sellers is also depleted, and HODLers with conviction have now taken their coins, which is always the best case scenario. 2026 is going to be a great year. Plan accordingly.”
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