Key takeaways:
Bitcoin onchain data shows no signs of overheating, despite reaching an all-time high of $126,000.
Bitcoin cup-and-handle pattern targets $300,000, backed by multiple factors.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded 4% below its new all-time high of $126,000 reached on Monday. As BTC price consolidates around $122,000, several market analysts are convinced that the bull cycle is not over.
Bitcoin market is not overheated yet
For crypto analyst Mark Moss, Bitcoin has not yet reached its peak range.
While Bitcoin trades near all-time highs, its MVRV Z-Score remains far below levels historically associated with market tops. This divergence suggests the current rally may still have room to run.
Related: ‘Hundreds of simulations’ pin Bitcoin at 50% odds of $140K this month
The MVRV Z-Score measures how far Bitcoin’s market value deviates from its realized value, a proxy for the capital actually invested into the network.
“Bitcoin is breaking out to new ATHs, and yet it’s not looking anywhere near cycle peaks,” Mark Moss said in an X post on Tuesday.
He added that positive fundamentals, including quantitative easing (QE) by the US Federal Reserve, record spot BTC inflows, persistent buying by Bitcoin treasury companies, and market shift to “debasement trade” could push Bitcoin price higher in Q4 2025.
Similarly, CoinGlass’ bull market peak signals, a selection of 30 potential selling triggers aimed at catching long-term BTC price tops, are showing no signs of overheating. In fact, none of the indicators are flashing a top signal.
YouTuber Jesus Martinez, in particular, highlighted the Pi Cycle Top indicator to demonstrate that “Bitcoin still has a lot of room for growth.”
“The dollar is crashing, the world’s monetary system is crumbling, and considering markets have nowhere near the retail interest seen in 2021, we are still in a growth phase,” Martinez said, adding:
“The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is targeting a $200K Bitcoin right now.”
Cointelegraph also reported that Bitcoin’s short-term holder MVRV pricing bands are well below overheated levels, signaling that BTC still has room for expansion.
Bitcoin price could rally to $300,000
The weekly candle chart shows that the price broke above the cup-and-handle neckline at $69,000 in November 2024. The BTC/USD pair is still validating the breakout and could rise to complete the maximum distance between the cup’s trough and the neckline.
That puts Bitcoin’s cup-and-handle breakout target for 2025–26 at about $303,000, according to chartist Gert van Lagen.
Such a move would represent a 147% rally from the current levels.
“Bitcoin’s new all-time high is just the beginning,” said a technical analyst, Jonathan Carter, while highlighting a similar setup on the two-day chart.
A successful breakout could see the BTC/USD pair “surge toward targets at $135,000, $145,000, and $160,000,” Carter said, adding:
“The long-term bullish target for this cycle is expected to reach between $200,000 and $250,000.”
As Cointelegraph reported, intense profit-taking at higher levels could see Bitcoin fall back toward $114,000, in the short term, potentially providing an entry point for late longs before the uptrend resumes.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
