Bitcoin (BTC) broke below its June support near $98,000 on Thursday, marking its first clear lower high–lower low structure on the daily chart since February. The decline deepened on Friday as BTC slid to $94,500, bringing it within striking distance of the $93,500 yearly open, a level that would fully erase its gains for 2025.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin is at risk of its first weekly close below the 50-week SMA since 2023, breaking a two-year uptrend.
Data shows all major short-term realized price bands have flipped into resistance.
Short-term holders are showing near-capitulation losses of 12.79%.
A two-year Bitcoin trend is at risk
After defending the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) last week with a sharp weekend rebound, Bitcoin is once again on track to close below the indicator, unless the price climbs back above $101,000 by Sunday.
This level has acted as a structural support since September 2023, defining a two-year uptrend. A confirmed weekly close beneath it would not only invalidate that trend but also suggest that BTC’s bullish momentum has weakened enough for a broader correction to take shape.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr noted the severity of the breakdown, saying, “there is no support left in the market, all key metrics have flipped into resistance,” after BTC lost $100,000 on Nov. 14.
Data shows multiple short-term holder (STH) realized price bands, once reliable bounce zones, now forming overhead barriers. The STH 1W–1M realized price near $102,400, and the STH 1M–3M band around $98,000 have both inverted following more than $1.1 billion in liquidations.
However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Ju highlighted a possible stabilizing zone: the six-to-12 month holder cost basis near $94,000. A bounce from this level could mark a technical floor, but a decisive higher-timeframe close below it risks accelerating losses and confirming a bear market.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs bleed $866M in second-worst day on record, but some analysts still bullish
Can short-term pain fasten the capitulation clock?
Data from CryptoQuant showed that the drop below $98,000 triggered acute stress among new and short-term participants. New investors are down 3.46%, while those who bought in the past month sit at a 7.71% loss. Most importantly, the core short-term holder cohort, buyers within the past six months, is now facing a steep 12.79% loss.
This magnitude of unrealized loss has historically aligned with capitulation phases, where reactive traders sell into fear, deepening corrections but also clearing the path for stronger long-term holders. With short-term realized profit and loss dropping 13%, data suggests that panic may be nearing exhaustion, often the final stage before a more stable recovery structure forms.
Related: Bitcoin falls to $98K as futures liquidations soar: Should bulls expect a bounce?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
