Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop below $90,000 has pushed onchain profitability metrics into the negative territory, signaling BTC’s entry into a bear market, new research revealed.
Data from TradingView showed that Bitcoin price action had established a new range on lower time frames, and market observers were watching the key support levels below.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s net realized profit/loss reveals that the market could be entering a macro downtrend.
The buyer congestion zone between $80,000 and $84,000 remains the main BTC support for now.
Bitcoin profitability cycle turns negative
In the Thursday edition of its regular newsletter, The Weekly Crypto Report, onchain data provider CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin holders are transitioning from booking profits to realizing losses for the first time in over two years.
The report said that net realized profit/loss, which captures the aggregate gains or losses investors lock in when they move coins onchain, has dropped to 69,000 BTC over the last 30 days, signaling a significant decline in market strength.
Related: Bitcoin analysts predict ‘prolonged consolidation’ for BTC price
“Bitcoin holders began realizing net losses for the first time since October 2023,” analysts at CryptoQuant said, adding:
“Realized profits peaks have been declining since March 2024, an indication that prices are losing momentum as the bull market ends.”
Meanwhile, annual net realized profits have dropped sharply, falling to 2.5 million BTC from 4.4 million BTC in October, levels last seen in March 2022.
This reinforces the theory that “onchain profit dynamics are now consistent with early-stage bear market conditions,” the analysts said.
While similar onchain conditions preceded past bear markets, analysts caution that realized profit metrics alone have historically produced false signals during consolidation phases.
This profitability pattern closely mirrors the 2021–2022 bull-to-bear transition when realized profits peaked in January 2021 and formed lower highs through 2021. Then they flipped into net losses ahead of the 2022 bear market, as shown in the chart above.
Severeal analysts expect 2026 to be a bear market year, and various forecasts see BTC price returning to as low as $58,000.
“Bitcoin just flashed a bear market signal,” said analyst Titan of Crypto in a recent post on X, highlighting a bearish cross from the MACD in the two-month time frame.
“Historically, similar set-ups were followed by 50% – 64% drawdowns.”
Watch these Bitcoin price levels next
The latest sell-off has seen the BTC/USD pair draw down 9% from its 2026 high of $97,930.
As a result, Bitcoin lost key support levels, including the 75th percentile cost basis currently at $92,940.
Bitcoin “now trades below the cost basis of 75% of supply, signalling rising distribution pressure,” said Glassnode in a Thursday post on X, adding:
“Risk has shifted higher, with the downside dominant unless this level is recovered.”
Bitcoin price is “now back at the rising trendline support,” Merlijn The Trader said in a Friday analysis on X, referring to the support between $89,000 and $90,000.
If this level is lost, “we are likely to revisit the range lows” around $$84,000, the trader added.
The Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap reveals that investors acquired about 941,651 BTC at this level over the last six months, suggesting it’s a key support level.
The next major level of support sits at around $80,000, where over 127,000 BTC were previously acquired.
Many analysts agree that a weak derivatives market, selling by long-term holders, and BTC transfers to exchanges could push Bitcoin’s price into an extended downtrend this year.
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