Bitcoin just broke its previous all-time high, and it’s back in the headlines — and this time, one big bank thinks the rally is far from over.
Standard Chartered has doubled down on its bold prediction that the world’s largest digital asset could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by strong institutional demand, ETF inflows and growing confidence in the scarce digital asset.
The forecast comes as bitcoin trades near $125,000, just breaking its August all-time high of around $124,500. It’s up 12% in the past week, extending the fourth quarter surge many are calling “Uptober”.
“ETF demand continues to provide a structural bid for Bitcoin,” said Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered.
He explains that institutional inflows are reshaping the market’s foundations, noting that if ETF inflows continue at this pace, the limited supply of bitcoin could lead to a record price surge into 2026.
Related: US-Listed Bitcoin ETFs Now Hold Over 6% of Total BTC Supply
Kendrick’s near-term target is $135,000, which he says could happen very soon. The bank attributes this to a mix of macro factors, ETF inflows and the U.S. government shutdown, which is pushing investors into alternative assets.
Kendrick pointed out that bitcoin’s price is becoming more correlated with U.S. Treasury term premiums — a measure of market risk related to government debt. Historically, uncertainty in government finances has driven demand for bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal risk.
“The shutdown matters this time around,” Kendrick wrote.
“During the previous Trump shutdown (22 Dec 2018 to 25 Jan 2019) Bitcoin was in a different place than now, so it did little. However, this year Bitcoin has traded with ‘U.S. government risks’ as best shown by its relationship to U.S. treasury term premium.”
With markets on edge and investors looking for protection against volatility, Standard Chartered thinks bitcoin could benefit in the weeks ahead.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are showing growing optimism with people betting bitcoin will stay above $120,000 or even hit $150,000 in the coming months.
One of the key planks of Standard Chartered’s argument is the massive flow of money into bitcoin ETFs. Since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, the products have gone ballistic.
These funds have absorbed newly mined bitcoin (outpacing it at 9x at times) and tightened the asset’s supply, creating what Kendrick calls a structural supply squeeze.
Standard Chartered isn’t alone in its bullishness. Other big banks are also making positive calls on bitcoin.
JPMorgan says bitcoin is undervalued compared to gold and estimates it could reach $165,000 if it reaches parity with private gold investments. Citigroup forecast $133,000 by the end of 2025, and VanEck $180,000 based on post-halving market trends.
The consensus across these reports is that ETF inflows, macro uncertainty, and institutional adoption are driving the new cycle — even as traditional halving-based timing models are breaking down.
