Bitcoin has shown resilience compared to the broader financial market amid macroeconomic uncertainty, but analysts caution it’s still too early to know whether the trend will last.
“We’re not quite there yet, but if Bitcoin holds strength through the upcoming CPI, as well as ongoing Powell-related and equity earnings volatility, the decoupling narrative could evolve from “temporary divergence” to “regime change,” Bitfinex analysts said in an April 23 markets note viewed by Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin’s relative strength yet to be proven as structural
The analysts said that while Bitcoin’s (BTC) relative strength against US equities “appears real,” it is yet to be confirmed as structural. The analysts warned that Bitcoin has previously seen short periods of outperformance, only to eventually fall back in line with the broader market.
Cointelegraph recently reported that Bitcoin is increasingly abandoning its stock correlation to copy gold’s upside. At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s price has posted gains of 7.68% over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are down 6.79% and 8.14%, respectively, as per Google Finance data.
Over the same period, Nvidia (NVDA), which has outperformed Bitcoin over the past decade, fell 15.4%. The analysts attributed the decline to the “effective ban on advanced chip exports to China and tariff-driven volatility.” In May 2024, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten said there is a “near zero chance of Nvidia outperforming Bitcoin over the next 10 years.”
The Bitfinex analysts described the current crypto market as a “hybrid state,” with rising macroeconomic risk on one side and an uptick in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows on the other.
April 22 alone saw $913 million in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, the largest since late January.
“This backdrop favors Bitcoin as the “cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry.”
They added that this reinforces Bitcoin’s position as a strong store of value, with Bitcoin dominance rising to levels not seen since late 2021.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s dominance was 64.39%, according to TradingView data.
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Crypto market participants will be closely watching April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), published on May 13, after March data showed a cooling trend that some saw as a short-term bearish signal for Bitcoin.
March’s CPI came in at 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.8% in February, the lowest level since February 2023, according to the US Bureau of Statistics.
Meanwhile, some crypto analysts caution that other indicators suggest Bitcoin’s rally may not last.
10x Research head of research Markus Thielen said, “Given that our stablecoin minting indicator has yet to return to high-activity levels, we remain cautious about the sustainability of the current Bitcoin rally.”
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
