Bitcoin (BTC) opened 2026 at $87,500 as markets geared up for the year’s first Wall Street trading session.
Key points:
Bitcoin lies in wait at $87,500 for the start of TradFi trading on global markets.
RSI and Bollinger Band signals imply major BTC price volatility is due.
Market participants say goodbye to the four-year price cycle theory.
Traders brace for 2023-style BTC price volatility
Data from TradingView tracked a calm start to the new yearly candle for Bitcoin, capping a grim Q4 for bulls.
Ahead of TradFi markets returning, traders were split between trepidation and hope for a broader crypto market rebound.
“New year, fresh start. We have a locked in 3-day bull div, right on top of key support,” trader Jelle summarized in his latest analysis on X.
Jelle referred to a bullish divergence playing out on the relative strength index (RSI) indicator on three-day timeframes.
“$BTC looks good for upside this quarter,” he added.
Analytics account Quantdata21 anticipated BTC price volatility as a result of low weekly RSI and record narrowing on the Bollinger Bands volatility index.
As Cointelegraph reported, the indicator’s Bollinger BandWidth derivative was setting records throughout Q4, implying that a major upward move was due.
“There is only one other occasion that daily bollinger band width has squeezed this tight with weekly RSI below 40,” Quantdata21 wrote Wednesday.
“That was january 2023, and we all know what happened to bitcoin from there.”
Bitcoin four-year cycle meets “new era”
Bitcoin price performance in 2025 nonetheless ended on a low as BTC/USD completed its first “red” 12-month candle in a post-halving year.
Related: Bitfinex whales go long BTC for 2026: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
This fielded more discussion over whether four-year BTC price cycles were still relevant.
$BTC just closed its post-halving year in red for the first time ever
Cycles were never a law of nature.
They were a liquidity pattern.
Different macro, different participants different constraints.
What broke wasn’t Bitcoin.
What broke was the assumption that timing stays… pic.twitter.com/QCHF2J32tc
— Cipher X (@Cipher2X) January 1, 2026
“RIP Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle,” Simon Dixon, founder and CEO of Bitcoin security firm Bnk To The Future, told X followers on the day.
Dixon said that 2026 would form a “new era” for Bitcoin in light of the four-year cycle breakdown.
Despite this, as Cointelegraph revealed, various forecasts demand new all-time highs in the coming year. $150,000 proved to be particularly popular, with calls coming from Strategy CEO Michael Saylor among others.
In the short term, meanwhile, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe began the countdown to $90,000.
“I would suggest, given that more and more doors are opening for people to invest into $BTC, that we’re going to test $90K in the coming week and start breaking upwards,” he concluded.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
