In all likelihood, the 2025 NFL MVP is playing Sunday.
What’s less certain is who exactly that will be.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye are the heavy front-runners for the coveted annual honor.
Maye and the Patriots are set to host the Houston Texans in the earlier window of Sunday afternoon’s divisional round of the playoffs, while Stafford and the Rams face the Bears in frigid Chicago in the second game of the day.
And while those games have no bearing on the MVP outcome — it’s a regular-season award — Sunday could mark the last time Stafford and Maye play on the same day this season.
“It would mean a lot,” Stafford said of winning MVP in an Associated Press interview published Friday.
“It would be an unbelievable team award because, especially the way I play the game at quarterback, I’m not running around, holding the ball for forever. I’m getting it to guys that are making great plays.”
Stafford, 37, boasts the statistical edge after leading the NFL in passing yards (4,707) and touchdowns (46) against eight interceptions.
Maye, 23, threw for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns against eight interceptions, and he added 450 rushing yards and four scores on the ground.
The Patriots (13-4) finished with the better record and won their division, which the Rams (12-5) did not, though New England’s opponents combined for a .391 winning percentage — by far the easiest schedule in the NFL.
All-Pro voters sided with Stafford, naming him to the first team and Maye to the second. The sentimental narrative also benefits Stafford, a 17-year veteran who has never won the award.
“I understand the history of this game and so many great players before me,” Stafford told the AP, “and to be mentioned in any kind of breath with those guys would mean a lot.”
Of course, Stafford and Maye both have loftier aspirations than an MVP award. Their teams are two of the Super Bowl favorites, though both face tough matchups on Sunday.
PATRIOTS VS. TEXANS
Maye is tasked with solving — or, at least, surviving — a dominant Texans defense that returned two touchdowns in Monday’s 30-6 first-round rout of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
“They fly around,” Maye said. “They’re relentless. They’re great up front. They’re great in the back end. They’ve got great linebackers. They’re great all around. Great coaching. So we’ve got our hands full, and we know it’s going to be a tough game.”
Houston’s defense allowed an NFL-low 277.2 yards per game in the regular season, while opponents managed only 17.4 points per game.
The Texans forced 29 turnovers during the season and two more in the wild card round.
“We want to try to be as precise as possible,” Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel said.
“We haven’t talked one time about being perfect since I’ve been here. We’re aiming for success and not perfection. … We know how critical taking care of the football is in every game, especially against a team that’s plus-16 in the turnover margin.”
Maye’s scrambling ability figures to be key against a pressure-happy Texans front headlined by Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter.
The second-year quarterback led the Patriots with 57 rushing yards on 10 attempts in their 16-3 first-round victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.
“Whatever it takes for us to win the game, I don’t care how it comes out,” said Patriots leading receiver Stefon Diggs, who continues to encourage Maye to run.
“I just want to continue to see him grow, and I’m just trying to be an echo of some positive energy. If using his legs is what’s needed, then turn into Michael Vick.”
Maye threw one touchdown pass but committed two turnovers in last weekend’s playoff debut.
“Any playoff game has pressure,” Maye said. “Trying to play in the postseason, win postseason games, is tough in this league. I was proud to be able to do it in front of the home crowd.”
Although the Texans (12-5) have won 10 games in a row, including the playoffs, the Patriots are 2.5-point favorites.
RAMS VS. BEARS
The Rams, meanwhile, are 3.5-favorites despite being on the road.
Los Angeles boasted a superior offense and defense than the NFC North-winning Bears (12-5) in the regular season, though Sunday’s game features a wrinkle that surely favors Chicago:
The forecast calls for a high of 21 degrees, 20-mph winds and a strong chance of snow.
“I think we’ve handled those things well. We’re not gonna sit here and waste our emotional energy on things that we can’t control. I don’t have a weather machine,” head coach Sean McVay said.
“We talk about mental toughness all the time and controlling the things that we can control. Let’s be present in that 3 ½-hour window.”
Stafford, who played outdoors in Chicago and Green Bay annually during his 12 seasons with the Detroit Lions, said he plans to wear scuba-suit-like gear under his uniform to help stay warm.
As if the wicked weather wasn’t enough, Stafford is also dealing with a sprained index finger on his throwing hand that he suffered during last weekend’s 34-31 win in Carolina.
But Stafford practiced without limitations, and both he and McVay downplayed the finger being a factor in Sunday’s game. That pair seeks their first trip to the NFC Championship Game since the 2021 playoffs, when they won the Super Bowl.
Standing in their way are Caleb Williams and the never-say-die Bears, who had six fourth-quarter comeback wins during the regular season, then erased an 18-point deficit in the final quarter of last weekend’s 31-27 victory over the Packers.
“I want to make sure that I do everything in my power to make sure that we get to come back to work next week,” Stafford told the AP, “and do it again.”
