Oil held steady on Monday amid potential supply disruptions from intensifying protests in Iran, as efforts to resume Venezuelan oil exports stabilized prices.
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Oil prices dipped on Monday after Iran said it had total control following the biggest anti-government demonstrations in years, easing some concerns over supply from the OPEC producer, while investors also weighed efforts to resume oil exports from Venezuela.
Brent crude futures lost 45 cents, or 0.7%, to $62.89 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $58.63 a barrel, down 49 cents, or 0.8%.
“Lower European equity markets and lack of additional supply disruptions is moderately weighing on oil prices, following a strong rally at the end of last week,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
Both benchmarks rose more than 3% last week in their biggest such rise since October, as Iran’s clerical establishment stepped up its crackdown on the biggest demonstrations since 2022, though protests escalated over the weekend.
Trump warns of intervention in Tehran
The situation in Iran is “under total control” after widespread demonstrations over the weekend, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Monday in remarks translated to English.
U.S. President Donald Trump had warned of possible military intervention to a violent crackdown on the Iranian protests.
More than 500 people have been killed in the civil unrest, a rights group said on Sunday.
Trump is expected to meet senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for Iran, a U.S. official told Reuters.
While a premium has formed in oil prices in recent days, the market is still underestimating the geopolitical risk from a wider Iran conflict that may affect oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz, Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.
“The market is saying, ‘Show me the disruption to supply’, before materially responding,” he added.
Venezuela set to resume oil exports soon
Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports soon following the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro, as Trump said last week the government in Caracas is set to turn over as much as 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States.
That has set off a race among oil companies to find tankers and prepare operations to ship the crude safely from vessels and dilapidated Venezuelan ports, four sources familiar with the operations said.
In a White House meeting on Friday, Trafigura said its first vessel should load in the next week.
Investors are also watching the risk of disruptions in supply from Russia, amid Ukraine’s attacks targeting its energy facilities and the prospects of tougher U.S. sanctions on Russian energy.
Oil prices are likely to drift lower this year as a wave of supply creates a market surplus, although geopolitical risks tied to Russia, Venezuela and Iran will continue to drive volatility, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Sunday.
The investment bank maintained its 2026 average price forecasts of $56/$52 per barrel for Brent/WTI, and expects Brent/WTI prices to bottom at $54/50 in the last quarter as OECD inventories build up.
