Bitcoin (BTC) rallied 10% from its yearly open near $87,500 before stalling below resistance, but analysts say the price remains positioned for higher targets if key supply levels are reclaimed and spot demand continues to build.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin must take out resistance at $98,000 to trigger a rally to a six-figure BTC price.
Spot demand and spot ETF inflows must persist for a breakout to $100,000.
BTC price must take out resistance at $98,000
BTC’s price rebounds since November 2025 have repeatedly been rejected by a supply zone at $93,000 to $110,000.
This represents the lower boundary of the long-term holder (LTH) supply clusters, according to Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap.
Related: Bitcoin price tags $97K despite high producer price inflation, no US tariff ruling
“This region has consistently acted as a transition barrier, separating corrective phases from durable bull regimes,” Glassnode said in its latest Week On-chain report, adding:
“With price once again pressing into this overhead supply, the market now faces a familiar test of resilience, where absorbing long-term holder distribution remains a prerequisite for any broader trend reversal.”
Bitcoin’s bullish case hinges on its price cracking through immediate resistance at $98,300 — the short-term holder (STH) supply basis.
This level represents the aggregate entry price of investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, and serves as a critical gauge of market confidence.
“Sustained trading above this threshold would indicate that new demand is absorbing overhead supply, allowing recent buyers to remain profitable,” Glassnode said, adding:
“Historically, reclaiming and holding above the Short-Term Holder cost basis has marked the transition from corrective phases into more durable uptrends.”
Therefore, the ability of the BTC/USD pair to reclaim $98,000 remains a vital prerequisite for restoring confidence in the sustenance of the rally.
“It’s even possible we hit that $100K mark this week,” MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in a recent analysis on X, adding:
“The trend is upwards.”
As Cointelegraph reported, holding above the daily order block between $90,000 and $92,000 would strengthen the case for a sustained push above $100,000 before the end of the month.
Bitcoin bulls must sustain spot and ETF demand
Bitcoin’s ability to push above $100,000 appears plausible due to the return of spot demand and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The chart below shows that Bitcoin’s spot market activity has begun to improve, with Binance and aggregate exchange cumulative volume delta (CVD) measures returning to a buy-dominant regime.
This reflects a shift away from persistent sell-side pressure, signaling that traders are once again “absorbing supply rather than distributing into strength,” Glassnode said, adding:
“The transition back into a net-buying posture across major venues represents a constructive structural shift.”
Meanwhile, demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs is showing signs of coming back, with these investment products recording inflows over three straight days, totaling $1.7 billion, per data from SoSoValue
The $843.6 million recorded on Wednesday was the highest since Oct. 7, 2025, and marked the largest single-day inflows of 2026.
“Bitcoin’s price will go parabolic if ETF demand persists long-term,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said in an X post on Tuesday, adding:
Hougan said just as gold rallied 65% after its supply was absorbed, a similar move could happen with Bitcoin because ETFs are buying more BTC than the new supply being created.
“If ETF demand persists – and I think it will – eventually, sellers will run out of ammunition.”
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