Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in fighting form as $80,000 returns after a three-month absence.
Bitcoin finally taps the $80,000 mark for the first time since late January, as a trader brings $88,000 and higher back into focus.The Bitcoin bear flag construction is in the spotlight, while some still see a new macro breakdown coming.Dissent at the Federal Reserve contrasts with record highs for the S&P 500, but analysis warns that stocks are not safe.Oil is done and the overall supply overhang will drive a comedown, new research says in a potential risk-asset tailwind.Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio metric is now at its highest levels since late January.
BTC price can hit $88,000 and higher next: Trader
It started with a break through a key 21-week trend line last week, and now, Bitcoin is back at $80,000 for the first time in three months.
Data from TradingView shows new local highs of $80,617 on Bitstamp.
The weekly close did not disappoint, becoming Bitcoin’s highest since late January and only its second above the 21-week trend line since October 2025.
BTC/USD one-week chart with 21EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Correspondingly, market participants are daring to forecast even highs levels next. For crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe, $88,000 is just the start.
“Bitcoin looks primed for upwards momentum,” he wrote in one of his latest posts on X.
“Very keen to see how the markets will react when the US opens, especially given the positive ETF flows of last Friday. Breakout above $79K opens the opportunities all the way towards $86-88K for coming period.”
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Van de Poppe referred to Friday’s $630 million net inflows for US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
As a result of February’s drop to the $60,000 zone, which he described as “one of the strongest corrections in its existence,” Van de Poppe suggested that a reset of onchain indicators had now locked in.
“That means: we can easily run to $92-95K without any breakdown of the bear market trend, and we can easily start a bull market from here,” another post stated on Sunday.
Traders split over Bitcoin’s bear flag
Bitcoin pushing to $80,000 has implications for a multi-month bearish structure on the daily BTC/USD chart. This bear flag, Bitcoin’s second of 2026, is now tantalizingly close to being left behind.
At the same time, a failure to break higher leaves price vulnerable to a comedown — possibly to new macro lows.
“If it does lose this structure, a deeper move down in that 30–40% range wouldn’t be surprising and the whole market probably feels it,” trader and investor Crypto Storm wrote in a post on X.
“Only real shift in this view is a clean daily close back above 80K, that would flip things bullish again.”
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: CryptoStorm/X
Trader BitBull is among those seeing failure as the likely outcome, telling X followers that they would soon begin building short positions with a $60,000 target.
“$BTC bear flag is very close to completion,” they summarized.
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: BitBull/X
Consensus, however, is far from unanimous about where BTC/USD will go next. For trader Jeff Sun, the signals are clear that Bitcoin bulls have already won out.
“Spot has now reclaimed $80,000 for the first time since January 31, 2026. This is a position I have been building via ETF since early March,” he reported on Monday.
Sun described the structure as “not a bear flag” based on the latest three-month price highs.
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Jeff Sun/X
Like Sun, late last month, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, pointed to Bitcoin’s rebound from the $60,000 area in early February.
“The rally off the $60,033 low could still be described as a bear flag (not unlike the bear market rally last fall), but my sense is that Bitcoin continues to build a large base here in preparation for the next major up wave,” he told X followers at the time.
Fed rate cuts “over for now” as officials spar
As the US-Iran war grinds on for a third month, its impact on inflation is increasingly on officials’ minds.
The Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate meeting underscored the Iran tensions, along with near three-year highs in its “preferred” inflation gauge.
Consensus over policy was noticeably under strain, and dissent from four members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made for the most conflicted meeting statement since the early 1990s.
“The primary reason for dissent was against language in the meeting statement indicating an easing bias,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company commented on the topic in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic.
“Leading indicators of the fed funds rate indicates that the Fed’s easing cycle is over for now.”
Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
As multiple senior Fed figures take to the stage this week and Chair Jerome Powell is replaced by Kevin Warsh on May 15, data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that easing is the last thing that markets now expect this year.
Risk assets traditionally struggle when policy is at risk of tightening. So far, however, stocks have shaken off any cold feet, with the S&P 500 hitting new record highs last week.
Continuing, Mosaic said that those highs were driven by a “sharp jump in corporate earnings.”
“If inflation does start accelerating further in the months ahead, that could add significant pressure to stock valuations,” it warned.
“High inflation tends to lead to high interest rates, which makes the present value of future corporate profits worth less in present value terms.”
S&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Oil gains “fully priced in” despite Iran war
In analytics circles, there is growing conviction over the fate of global oil prices.
In his latest Commodity Report on Monday, analyst Lukas Kuemmerle said that despite the ongoing supply squeeze, the overall trend still points to supply outweighing demand.
“Brent crude is currently trading around $112 per barrel, up from $61 at the start of the year. The price has tested the March and April highs three times in the past month — and each time it has been rejected,” he noted.
“This is classic technical behaviour for a market where the bullish story is fully priced in.”
Crude oil futures one-day chart. Source: Lukas Kuemmerle
Kuemmerle said that markets have not forgotten the “supply growth” narrative for 2026, and that an oil-price comedown is all the more likely because of it.
“Even Goldman Sachs, the most war-bullish of the major banks, sees Brent averaging $85 with the Hormuz disruption fully priced in,” he continued.
Brent spot passed $120 per barrel for the first time since 2022 last week, subsequently cooling before returning to $115 to start the week.
Spot Brent crude oil one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Kuemmerle, meanwhile, adds that “hedge funds that wanted to be long the Iran story are already long.”
“The flow has turned,” he concluded, saying that smart money “has already repositioned for the reversal.”
Bitcoin MVRV ratio shows ongoing recovery
A key Bitcoin onchain metric is increasingly supporting the bull case this month.
Related: Crypto industry will be ‘just fine’ if CLARITY Act doesn’t pass: Chris Perkins
Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant this week flags multimonth highs in Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio tool.
MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the price at which the supply last moved, also known as its “realized cap.”
Values below 1 suggest oversold conditions, with the metric dipping to lows near 1.1 during Bitcoin’s trip to $60,000.
“The Bitcoin MVRV Ratio is currently reading around 1.45, a significant level as it represents one of its highest readings since the beginning of 2026,” CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain now notes.
“This signal reflects a clear improvement in Bitcoin’s market valuation relative to its realized value, suggesting that the market has begun to regain an important portion of its momentum following a period of decline and rebalancing during the first months of the year.”
.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent)
Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant
Arab Chain describes MVRV as showing a “gradual improvement in investor profitability.”
“If the indicator continues to climb in the coming period, it could point to the market entering a stronger and more mature phase within the broader upward trend,” it adds.
