A survey of 520 political experts found a consensus that the United States is descending toward some form of authoritarianism. And it may be getting worse.
Bright Line Watch, which is run by a consortium of political scientists at the University of Rochester, Dartmouth College, University of Michigan, and the University of Chicago, gave the U.S. democracy a rating of 55 several weeks into President Trump’s second term.
In their rankings, 100 is a pure democracy and zero indicates a dictatorship. Prior to Trump retaking control of power in January, the U.S. scored a 67.
The current score is the lowest number recorded since Bright Line Watch began its ratings system in 2017.
Bright Line Watch co-director and Dartmouth Professor John Carey called that a “precipitous drop” and told NPR, “We’re moving in the wrong direction.”
That survey taken in February ranked 30 principles of democratic performance including how the government interacts with the media, acts of political retribution and the effectiveness of checks and balances over executive authority. Carey and his team reportedly plans to soon conduct another study that they expect will show further decline.
Bright Line Watch said that between 2017 and 2024, expert assessments varied between 61 and 70 points. The previous low came in October 2020 before Democrat Joe Biden defeated incumbent Donald Trump in the following month’s heated election.
After the 2024 vote, when Trump defeated Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, that number dipped slightly from 69 to 67.
“However, the drop among experts from November 2024 to February 2025 was precipitous; average ratings have fallen to the lowest level we have observed since 2017 — an average of 55 out of 100,” researchers reported. “The experts predict further decline in the next two years, projecting a rating of 47 in 2027.”
Bright Line Watch’s experts rated Trump’s pardoning of Jan. 6 convicts, his firing of Inspectors General and Department of Justice investigators, and his relationship with Elon Musk to be among the greatest threats posed to U.S. democracy.
Some political scientists told NPR the U.S. could he headed toward “competitive authoritarianism,” where leaders are democratically elected, then work to maintain political power by eroding checks and balances.
Retired University at Buffalo Professor James Campbell doesn’t think that’s what’s happening here. He told NPR the Trump Administration has “done an excellent job” using legitimate presidential powers to get important things done and suspects left-leaning researchers find “comfort” in coming together to label the president an authoritarian.
